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Today Trump and Xi conclude Beijing summit, agree Strait of Hormuz must remain open and Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Trump warns Iran to reach a deal or face “annihilation.” WTI ~$105.66 on track for a roughly 10% weekly gain; Brent ~$109.47. AAA gas $4.515.
President Trump said yesterday he called off a planned military strike on Iran scheduled for Tuesday after leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE urged him to “hold off,” adding that serious negotiations were now underway. Tehran has not confirmed. The G7 finance ministers’ Paris meeting concluded yesterday with a joint statement pledging fiscal restraint amid Iran-war inflation risks. CNN reported the Pentagon has prepared a range of military plans for Iran in case Trump resumes attacks. The U.S. also issued a fresh waiver permitting sale of Russian crude already loaded onto tankers. WTI retreated toward $103 from above $107 Monday; Brent eased toward $110.
The dominant story today is a modest pivot away from imminent escalation. President Trump said yesterday that he called off a planned military strike on Iran scheduled for Tuesday after leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE urged him to “hold off,” adding that “serious negotiations were now underway.” Tehran has not yet confirmed the claim. Oil prices retreated on the news — WTI fell toward $103 from above $107 Monday, and Brent eased toward $110 after touching $112.93 Tuesday. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Tehran’s nuclear program remains the central unresolved obstacle.
The G7 Paris meeting concluded yesterday with a substantive but cautious joint statement. G7 finance ministers and central bank governors pledged not to expand fiscal spending excessively as the Iran war pushes the global economy toward inflation risks. French FM Roland Lescure hosted, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent urged sanctions alignment, German FM Klingbeil called G7 “the right framework” for ending the war, and ECB President Lagarde and Eurogroup President Pierakakis attended. The expanded participation — Brazil, India, Kenya, South Korea, Syria, Ukraine, UAE, Qatar as guests — signaled growing concern about supply-chain fragmentation. France urged the IMF and World Bank to step up assistance for vulnerable economies. The G7 leaders summit follows June 15-17 in Evian.
Beneath the diplomacy, the contingency posture remains visible. CNN reported the Pentagon has prepared a range of military plans for Iran in case Trump resumes attacks — a dual posture (diplomatic engagement via Pakistan plus visible military readiness) that gives Washington negotiating leverage. The U.S. also issued a fresh waiver permitting the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers. Iran’s revised peace proposal continues to include transferring 60%-enriched uranium to Russia and gradually reopening Hormuz; Washington has called the revisions “token.” Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser’s warning still stands: market normalization pushed to 2027 if Hormuz reopening is delayed past mid-June. Continuing coverage: geopolitics · oil · gas by state.
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